Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
